1-3 page Scenario Planning Framework and Discussion Paper.
The paper will be broken into three major sections:
1) First, a discussion of at least 15 key STEEP (1-3 page Scenario Planning Framework and Discussion Paper) drivers for the student’s selected project.
Remember drivers are forces external to the business and out of the organization’s control that can impact the business’s future. Students must consider at least one driver per STEEP category.
2) Second, a discussion of how the 15 drivers rate in terms of impact vs confidence (or certainty) to the client business. Remember to distinguish between known facts versus assumptions and what is significant enough to make an impact on the business.
Identify which drivers are the most impactful and for which you have the least confidence (or certainty.) and provide your logic for selecting your 2 most critical uncertainties. Make sure they are mutually independent and unrelated.
3) Third, plot your 2 critical uncertainties to uncover your 4 scenarios or alternative futures. (Include the resulting graphic/chart in your paper) In this section describe your scenarios in detail, using storytelling to paint a clear picture of what the futures contain and what the company would likely experience in these futures. Name your futures with an appropriate descriptive name.
Discuss the impact these futures would make to your business plans and what contingencies are needed to address them. Make sure to address how you will know when/if your business is entering this future. (ie. Roadsigns)
