MST 4104 – Time Series Analysis
Assignment 1 (Total Marks = 10)
Question 1 (a)
(b) Plot a time series graph for the above data.
(c) Plot the corresponding trend line using the method of moving average.
State the conditions under which the Moving Average method can be recommended for trend analysis? How will you determine the period of the moving average?
Calculate the 4-yearly moving average of the following data relating to sales in a departmental store:
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sales 960 976 974 996 1024 1040 1688 1128
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sales 1144 1120 1140 1168 1196 1212 1200 1180
Question 2
Explain what is meant by seasonal fluctuations of a time series. A company manufactures bicycles. Given the quarterly production figures of the company for the last 4 years, explain the procedure to compute seasonal indices by the ‘link relatives’ method.
Use link- relatives method to compute seasonal indices from the recorded production figures given below:
YEAR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 420 414 502 365
2017 491 456 516 337
2018 463 365 478 310
2019 502 487 536 404
