Forecasting Section of Aviation Planning Project:
Part 1: Historical Aeronautical Activity and Based Aircraft
This section provides a discussion of ISM’s historical activity levels to begin building a context for the forecast of aviation demand at the Airport. This section should describe the types and levels of aviation activity at the airport over the past 20 years. It should include tables and figures (think graphs) as appropriate. The tabulated data should include the number of based aircraft, the number of annual airport operations as applicable. Years to be referenced: 2000-2019 (omitting Covid historical years- 20/21 for purpose of this project)
Once you have this data, combine it in a table with years 2010-2019 and depict it (in excel) in graphical form. You should show at a minimum a graph of the previous 20 years of total operations at ISM and a graph of the previous 20 years of based aircraft at ISM.
| Year | ISM | Southern Region | Florida | |||
| Total Ops | Total BA | Total Ops | Total BA | Total Ops | Total BA | |
| 2010 | 120,826 | 175 | 22,384,855 | 30,816 | 7,636,144 | 10,919 |
| 2011 | 124,668 | 166 | 22,384,428 | 29,240 | 7,660,402 | 10,820 |
| 2012 | 120,962 | 135 | 22,249,158 | 30,156 | 7,712,381 | 11,279 |
| 2013 | 110,324 | 141 | 22,293,492 | 31,115 | 7,881,366 | 11,538 |
| 2014 | 85,708 | 147 | 22,137,200 | 32,143 | 7,867,890 | 11,822 |
| 2015 | 83,057 | 134 | 22,479,343 | 30,779 | 8,123,940 | 11,345 |
| 2016 | 83,527 | 134 | 22,085,051 | 33,028 | 8,186,968 | 11,983 |
| 2017 | 86,664 | 161 | 22,351,789 | 31,861 | 8,258,266 | 11,560 |
| 2018 | 102,532 | 155 | 22,842,618 | 30,827 | 8,623,420 | 10,746 |
| 2019 | 135,290 | 206 | 23,463,977 | 31,811 | 8,960,741 | 11,684 |
*Data retrieved from the FAA TAF; BA: Based Aircraft
(Reference 04-Forecasts_Final under reference materials for example)
Part 2: Forecast – Annual Operations, ADPM, Peak Hour, and Based Aircraft
This section should include a forecast of total annual operations for ISM for the years 2020 through to 2040. An operations forecast should be completed using a trend analysis for the 20-year planning period. For total future operations at ISM, use the 5-year trend average for your forecast calculations. In addition, develop forecast for the Average Day Peak Month and Peak Hour operation in the years 2020 and 2040. In the Year 2020 the peak month is August and is 10.5 percent of annual operations. In addition, peak hour operations are 12.0% percent of operations during the average day of the peak month. Lastly, forecast the based aircraft for 2020 through 2040 using trend analysis. Use the 10-year trend average to forecast the based aircraft.
For your based aircraft fleet mix, assume the following:
60% Single Engine
10 % Multi Engine
20% Jet
10% Rotorcraft (Helicopters)
